Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks

Early warning signals in plant disease outbreaks

Correspondence Sirio Orozco-Fuentes Email: [email protected] Summary 1. Infectious disease outbreaks in plants threaten ecosystems, agricultural crops and food trade. Currently, several fungal diseases are affecting forests worldwide, posing a major risk to tree species, habitats and consequently ecosystem decay. Prediction and control of disease spread are difficult, mainly ...

Early warning signals and the prosecutor's fallacy.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of na...

Early warning signals of stochastic switching.

The development of statistical signals for anticipating changes of state ('regime shifts') is an active area of research in ecology [1,2], earth and atmospheric science [3], and biology [4,5]. Causes of regime shifts include noise-induced transitions [6], discontinuities in the underlying dynamics [7], stochastic fluctuations dominated by low frequencies [8], stochastic switching between basins...

Economics of Plant Disease Outbreaks

ncreasing trade liberalisation, globalisation and international transportation of people and commodities have increased the potential for disease incursion, both plant and animal, in countries like Australia. While a comparatively strict quarantine regime and geographic isolation provide substantial protection in Australia, disease incursions are not uncommon. In recent years, there have been s...

Early warning systems for the detection of malaria outbreaks